by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-11-10 21:43:37
NFL DFS season is in full swing as Week 10 approaches, and our expert analysts are breaking down NFL DFS lineup optimizer picks and projections for FanDuel and DraftKings. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
There’s a wide range of game totals and spreads on the main slate this week, as four games currently have totals below 40, and four games currently have totals above 44. The Cowboys are demolishing all spreads as 17.5 point favorites against the Giants, while three games have spreads of 5.5-6.5, and the rest are all either 3 point or 1.5 point spreads.
HOU/CIN is the second highest projected total on the slate, and that’s even with Tee Higgins, Dameon Pierce, and Nico Collins out. JaMarr Chase is questionable and Robert Woods is as well, so there is some great value from this game, as cheap WRs on both sides are going to be looking at increased target shares.
Kyler Murray is the biggest headliner at QB as he’ll make his season debut, and in other QB news we have Tommy DeVito taking over for the injured Jones for the Giants, Will Levis being named the starting QB even if Tannehill is active, Taylor Heinicke remaining the starter for ATL, and Joshua Dobbs getting the start for Minnesota after an incredible performance last week.
Big names coming back from injury include David Montgomery, Deebo Samuel, Drake London, and possibly James Conner, while Justin Jefferson is officially listed as questionable but all signs and quotes from the team make it sound like he’s closer to doubtful this week.
Let’s get in to some of my favorite plays of the slate!
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks for DraftKings
I honestly think the Cowboys DST should have been priced above $5k, as I can’t see fading them in cash games for $4,400 in about the best spot possible for a top defense playing at home against a third-string QB. I like going with a mid-range to cheap QB in cash games like Stroud ($6,900), Burrow ($6,800), Goff ($6,400), or Geno ($5,800), and if you can’t fit McCaffrey ($9,200) at RB then there are a few guys at $6.5k or under I like targeting and will mention below. St. Brown ($8,300) is easily my favorite spend-up WR in a great matchup with LAC, and at TE, I like going with a sub-$5k guy to help fit in studs at other spots.
Tyler Boyd ($4,600)
I’m expecting huge ownership for Boyd in cash games, but for good reason, as the Bengals have the second-highest team total of the week, and Boyd is looking at a big jump in target share with Higgins out and Chase likely limited with his back injury if he even plays. Boyd has seen 7+ targets in five of eight games, and that should easily be his target floor this week, so I can’t see fading someone on one of the highest projected scoring offenses looking at a huge target share for under $5k.
If Chase does end up out, then Trenton Irwin ($3,000) and Irv Smith ($2,700) will enter cash game consideration, and Joe Mixon ($6,200) is already a top RB target for me but would be a must play along with Boyd if Chase sits.
Aaron Jones ($6,500)
It’s been since week 1 for Jones to be a cash game target for me, as I’ve been waiting for the Packers to unleash him again, and we finally saw that last week in which he saw 24 touches and scored 18.9 FP. This week he gets a Steelers defense allowing 133.1 rush yards/game and 377.3 total yards/game, both of which are bottom three ranks in the league. There are barely any RBs I’d be looking to use in cash games for under $7k, so Jones is an absolute steal on a full PPR site like DraftKings, and pairing him with Mixon will save you a ton of salary and still give you 40+ total FP upside at the position.
Tank Dell ($5,500) / Dalton Schultz ($4,900)
Since I’m using Mixon and Boyd already, it makes sense to have some Texans passing game exposure as they’ll likely be in catch-up mode most of the game, and we saw what kind of upside that can bring last week when Stroud was forced to throw it 40+ times. No Pierce in the running game will also force the Texans to throw more, and with Collins out with a calf injury, Dell and Schultz are looking at even bigger target shares than last week, in which each saw 11 targets. I think stacking both guys with Stroud in cash games makes a lot of sense given the likely game script and narrow target tree that will take place with Collins out, and after DET/LAC this HOU/CIN game is looking like the most likely game with shootout potential.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks for FanDuel
I’m finding myself on a lot of the same plays as DraftKings this week, as the super cheap prices of Jones ($6,800), Dell ($6,400), Boyd ($6,200), and Schultz ($6,100) are keeping them as a cash game core for me, along with the Cowboys DST ($5,200) and Stroud ($7,700). If you need the extra salary, I don’t mind dropping to Geno ($6,900) at QB and stacking him with Metcalf ($7,300) and/or Lockett ($6,800), while the St. Brown ($8,600) / La Porta ($6,500) stack with Goff ($8,000) is one of my favorite GPP plays.
Here are some other guys that I really like for the price, and should be in plenty of GPP lineups if they don’t make your cash game lineup:
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,100)
Hopkins dropped $300 in price after only putting up 8.5 FP on 11 targets last week and now gets to face a pass-funnel Bucs defense allowing almost 280 pass yards/game at a discounted salary. He’ll also have slightly less target competition with Burks out, and as slight road underdogs against a stout run defense, I think Hopkins has one of the highest floor/ceiling combos at WR this week.
Rachaad White ($7,000)
After Pollard ($7,800), Mixon ($7,700), and Jones ($6,800), I really don’t trust any other RB priced under $8k for cash games besides White, and at a $700-$800 discount to Pollard/Mixon I think he’s a solid salary saver to help you fit in the expensive Dallas DST and any other top player you’re targeting. The Titans run defense used to be a matchup to avoid, but they now rank 19th on the year and are up to 114.8 rush yards/game allowed, and even if White doesn’t find a ton of success on the ground, his usage in the passing game will always keep his floor high and usage safe. He makes for a great correlation play with Hopkins in cash games, and this will almost certainly be our last chance to use him at $7k or less.
Diontae Johnson ($7,000)
Speaking of correlation plays, Johnson is the perfect bring back on lineups with Aaron Jones, as the Packers will likely be without top CB Jaire Alexander. Johnson has seen 23 targets over the last two games and finally broke his touchdown drought last week, so with his confidence and usage rates sky-high coming into this game, I think there’s a great chance of him scoring for the second consecutive week, and his big volume should help pay off his low price even if he doesn’t score.
Use Our DFS Lineup Optimizer for Week 10
Make sure to check out our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to get a great look at even more top projected plays. It is by far the best place to build a large number of lineups quickly using your personalized build rules, ownership preferences, and stacks you want covered. You can also look at projected ownership to help you decide between players if you’d rather get leverage on the field with someone likely to see much lower ownership than similar plays at his position or price point.
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